How could Bitcoin fail?

I’m intending to increase the amount of time and money I invest in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. Investment is a bet: I’m betting that the long-term value of Bitcoin (many years ahead) will be larger than it is in 2017. It’s worth considering the possible ways in which Bitcoin could fail. A bet on Bitcoin is a bet that all of these threats won’t happen.

Worse is better. Bitcoin might be a theoretically superior system to today’s banking system. But theoretical superiority does not mean success. Maybe ACH and banks work well enough. Bitcoin could shrink from its hype to become a nerdy curiosity, like Tor or web-of-trust.
Impracticality. Maybe Bitcoin can’t be made convenient enough to become a primary payment mechanism. Maybe people can’t wrap their heads around enough to use it, or to trust themselves to use it. Maybe mainstream sellers never bother adopting it.
Illegality. Bitcoin could be banned. States have shown some effectiveness in applying the law to cryptography. China is trying to stamp out cryptocurrency exchanges at the moment.
Incorrectness. Someone could discover that Bitcoin doesn’t have its claimed (mathematical, cryptographic, game-theoretic) properties. Or more mundanely, someone discovers a critical bug and exploits it.
A 51% organization. One day, 51%+ of computing power might be controlled by a single organization. The First Persian Empire once controlled 44% of all people; this could happen again. Alternatively, a breakthrough in quantum computing could radically centralize computing power.
Technological collapse. Bitcoin relies on computers, the Internet, and a constant electricity supply. By comparison, gold does not rely on much except shared belief.

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👋 I'm Jim, a full-stack product engineer. Want to build an amazing product and a profitable business? Read more about me or Get in touch!

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